Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 24th, 2024

Darrell McCollom • July 24, 2024

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4½%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

July 24, 2024


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.


The global economy is expected to continue expanding at an annual rate of about 3% through 2026. While inflation is still above central bank targets in most advanced economies, it is forecast to ease gradually. In the United States, the anticipated economic slowdown is materializing, with consumption growth moderating. US inflation looks to have resumed its downward path. In the euro area, growth is picking up following a weak 2023. China’s economy is growing modestly, with weak domestic demand partially offset by strong exports. Global financial conditions have eased, with lower bond yields, buoyant equity prices, and robust corporate debt issuance. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable and oil prices are around the levels assumed in April’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR).


In Canada, economic growth likely picked up to about 1½% through the first half of this year. However, with robust population growth of about 3%, the economy’s potential output is still growing faster than GDP, which means excess supply has increased. Household spending, including both consumer purchases and housing, has been weak. There are signs of slack in the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.4%, with employment continuing to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderating, but remains elevated.


GDP growth is forecast to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025. This reflects stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease. Residential investment is expected to grow robustly. With new government limits on admissions of non-permanent residents, population growth should slow in 2025.


Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.


CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May. Broad inflationary pressures are easing. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm. Shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation. Inflation is also elevated in services that are closely affected by wages, such as restaurants and personal care.


The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2½% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025. The Bank expects CPI inflation to come down below core inflation in the second half of this year, largely because of base year effects on gasoline prices. As those effects wear off, CPI inflation may edge up again before settling around the 2% target next year.


With broad price pressures continuing to ease and inflation expected to move closer to 2%, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. Ongoing excess supply is lowering inflationary pressures. At the same time, price pressures in some important parts of the economy—notably shelter and some other services—are holding inflation up. Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation. Monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 4, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on October 23, 2024.


Read the July 24th, 2024 Monetary Policy Report


Darrell McCollum

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 17th, 2025

By Darrell McCollom • September 17, 2025
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2½%.  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario September 17, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. China’s economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canada’s exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar. Canada’s GDP declined by about 1½% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending. Employment has declined in the past two months since the Bank’s July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease. CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2½%. The federal government’s recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward. With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties. Governing Council will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships; how much this spills over into business investment, employment, and household spending; how the cost effects of trade disruptions and reconfigured supply chains are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 29, 2025. The Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report will be released at the same time.

Start Smart: Get Pre-Approved for Your Mortgage

By Darrell McCollom • September 10, 2025
Thinking of Buying a Home? Here’s Why Getting Pre-Approved Is Key If you’re ready to buy a home but aren’t sure where to begin, the answer is simple: start with a pre-approval. It’s one of the most important first steps in your home-buying journey—and here's why. Why a Pre-Approval is Crucial Imagine walking into a restaurant, hungry and excited to order, but unsure if your credit card will cover the bill. It’s the same situation with buying a home. You can browse listings online all day, but until you know how much you can afford, you’re just window shopping. Getting pre-approved for a mortgage is like finding out the price range you can comfortably shop within before you start looking at homes with a real estate agent. It sets you up for success and saves you from wasting time on properties that might be out of reach. What Exactly is a Pre-Approval? A pre-approval isn’t a guarantee. It’s not a promise that a lender will give you a mortgage no matter what happens with your finances. It’s more like a preview of your financial health, giving you a clear idea of how much you can borrow, based on the information you provide at the time. Think of it as a roadmap. After going through the pre-approval process, you’ll have a much clearer picture of what you can afford and what you need to do to make the final approval process smoother. What Happens During the Pre-Approval Process? When you apply for a pre-approval, lenders will look at a few key areas: Your income Your credit history Your assets and liabilities The property you’re interested in This comprehensive review will uncover any potential hurdles that could prevent you from securing financing later on. The earlier you identify these challenges, the better. Potential Issues a Pre-Approval Can Reveal Even if you feel confident that your finances are in good shape, a pre-approval might uncover issues you didn’t expect: Recent job changes or probation periods An income that’s heavily commission-based or reliant on extra shifts Errors or collections on your credit report Lack of a well-established credit history Insufficient funds saved for a down payment Existing debt reducing your qualification amount Any other financial blind spots you might not be aware of By addressing these issues early, you give yourself the best chance of securing the mortgage you need. A pre-approval makes sure there are no surprises along the way. Pre-Approval vs. Pre-Qualification: What’s the Difference? It’s important to understand that a pre-approval is more than just a quick online estimate. Unlike pre-qualification—which can sometimes be based on limited information and calculations—a pre-approval involves a thorough review of your finances. This includes looking at your credit report, providing detailed documents, and having a conversation with a mortgage professional about your options. Why Get Pre-Approved Now? The best time to secure a pre-approval is as soon as possible. The process is free and carries no risk—it just gives you a clear path forward. It’s never too early to start, and by doing so, you’ll be in a much stronger position when you're ready to make an offer on your dream home. Let’s Make Your Home Buying Journey Smooth A well-planned mortgage process can make all the difference in securing your home. If you’re ready to get pre-approved or just want to chat about your options, I’d love to help. Let’s make your home-buying experience a smooth and successful one!